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The past nine days have featured some of the wildest twists and turns in the history of U.S. presidential elections. On July 13, former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt two days before the start of the Republican National Convention. Then yesterday, President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the 2024 race, an unprecedented move for a sitting president who was his party's presumptive nominee.
TBiden's exit follows more than three weeks of growing calls among Democratic Party officials, donors and voters for him to consider stepping aside following his woeful performance in the June 27 debate against Trump. His decision leaves a vacant presidential nomination slot for Democrats less than a month before the party gathers in Chicago for its national convention. Yet Biden and many other high-profile Democrats have lined up behind Vice President Kamala Harris, making her unquestionably the most likely post-Biden alternative.
Naturally, we wondered how much better or worse Harris has polled against Trump compared with Biden. To get an initial apples-to-apples comparison, we homed in on national- and state-level surveys that separately tested both Harris and Biden against Trump. We also split the polls by whether the pollster conducted the survey before the debate (going back to Jan. 1) or after it, which gave us 24 pre-debate polls and 46 post-debate polls. While Harris consistently polled worse than Biden did against Trump before the debate, since then she's sometimes polled ahead of Biden. In fact, Harris fared the same as or better than Biden in close to half of the post-debate polls: A near-bell curve distribution in the differences between their margins in these polls is centered close to 0, suggesting little to no meaningful difference between how Harris and Biden performed.
What do the polls say about a Harris vs. Trump matchup?
What do the polls say about a Harris vs. Trump matchup?
© ABCN Photo Illustration, Getty. Kevin Dietsch, Justin Sullivan, Anna Moneymaker
And it seems that Harris's stronger showing in these later polls is more about her having made up distance on Trump than Biden losing ground. Across nine national surveys before the debate, Harris did about 3 points worse than Biden on average, but in 25 post-debate polls, she's only performed about 1 point worse than Biden on average — even as Biden's margin in the same set of post-debate surveys also got slightly better.* Harris also improved her showing across the swing states, based on a very limited sampling of polls.he past nine days have featured some of the wildest twists and turns in the history of U.S. presidential elections. On July 13, former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt two days before the start of the Republican National Convention. Then yesterday, President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the 2024 race, an unprecedented move for a sitting president who was his party's presumptive nominee.
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发表于 2024-7-23 22:16:32
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发表于 2024-9-13 09:58:51